The archived edition behind the lead-time claim on our homepage, reproduced with its publication timestamp.
We flagged the Ivory Coast fertilizer squeeze 34 days before the wires reported farmers had stopped buying.
"On March 25, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz were reported to be disrupting global fertilizer supplies, causing rapid price increases."
Recommended action to clients: "Assess fertilizer inventory for the upcoming mid-crop maintenance cycle."
The same edition carried the context that made the alert matter: the farmgate price had just been cut to 1,200 FCFA/kg, leaving farmers with no margin to absorb an input price shock.
On 28 April 2026, 34 days later, an industry survey reporting that most Ivorian cocoa farmers had bought no fertilizer for the season reached international wires and syndicated business coverage.
We claim the lead time, not the survey: our 25 March edition flagged the squeeze and told clients to check fertilizer inventory. The survey later confirmed the behavior at scale.
Region Alert archives every edition with its publication timestamp at the moment it is sent to subscribers. Source identities are withheld to protect collection; everything else on this page is reproduced from the archived edition. This receipt exists so the claim it supports can be checked rather than taken on faith.
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