Cameroon Far North Boko Haram Assessment 2026

On April 15, Pope Leo XIV arrived in Cameroon, prompting Ambazonia separatist groups to enforce a rare three-day ceasefire (April 15-17) across the North-West and South-West regions per. While this temporary truce facilitates safe passage and ensures Bamenda Airport remains operational per, heavy security deployments and traffic disruptions are severely impacting logistics in Douala, particularly along the airport-Japoma axis per. In the Far North, the government is considering lifting the force majeure on the Zina-Makary oil block, signaling potential confidence in regional stability per. On April 15, ONCC FOB prices surged by 136 FCFA to 1,928 FCFA/kg, re-establishing a strong 85 FCFA premium over robusta coffee per. This local price spike aligns with a rebound in ICE NY May 2026 futures, which climbed to $3,540/tonne amid hopes for demand recovery per. Regionally, the market remains tense as West African supplies tighten and the EUDR compliance deadline approaches, forcing buyers to prioritize traceable volumes. Domestically, cocoa has officially overtaken crude oil as Cameroon's top export for 2025, generating 810 billion FCFA in revenue per. The intersection of surging local prices, temporary security pauses, and high humidity creates a complex inter-crop procurement environment. With daytime humidity averaging 75-76% in the South-West and Littoral regions, natural drying is severely impeded, elevating mold risks at buying stations. Buyers should leverage the 72-hour separatist ceasefire window to safely extract stored volumes from the Anglophone regions before hostilities resume, while navigating the acute port congestion in Douala where 40 vessels are currently docked per.

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