Connected Crises Intelligence Report 2026

Security conditions within the immediate 150km corridor of the Reko Diq mine site remain highly volatile. In Chagai District, the Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC) announced a $25 million investment in the Reko Diq project The Daily CPEC. In Noshki (~130km from the mine), Pakistani military forces demolished structures near the ISI headquarters and ordered further evacuations amid ongoing clearance operations Estern Balochistan. The primary N-25 supply route faces severe interdiction risks and is currently assessed as NO_GO. An IED attack destroyed a police armored vehicle in Surab (~280km from the mine), killing the driver Estern Balochistan. Further south, BLF insurgents claimed attacks on military outposts in Pasni, Kharan, and Dasht Estern Balochistan. The Chaman border crossing (~200km) is completely closed due to cross-border warfare, and a gas cylinder explosion in a Chaman home killed 7 children and injured 22 others Dawn. Regionally, Pakistan has launched "Operation Ghazab lil-Haq," conducting extensive airstrikes against Taliban targets in Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia (>600km) Dawn. [Full analysis available for customers]

The Cameroon cocoa sector is currently navigating a historic market dislocation. As of February 28, official ONCC data confirms that cocoa FOB prices (1,527 FCFA/kg) remain significantly inverted below Robusta coffee (1,946 FCFA/kg), a trend that began mid-February ONCC. This price collapse has forced exporter buying prices down to 1,200–1,300 FCFA/kg, creating severe liquidity constraints for producers during the late Main Crop. While Cameroon celebrated a Gold Medal win at the Cacao of Excellence Awards in Amsterdam on February 26, the domestic reality is grim, with farmers facing a dual crisis of plummeting revenue and rising input costs Business in Cameroon. Logistically, a critical bottleneck at the Port of Douala appears to be easing. Following weeks of disruption due to a scanning dispute, GECAM announced a gradual return to normal operations on February 27 as SGS resumed scanning activities Facebook Group – Cocoa Cameroon 04. In a major infrastructure development, the Kribi Port Industrial Zone (KPIZ) was officially launched on February 26, a €795 million project aimed at boosting local processing capacity, though its immediate impact on the current crisis is limited Ecofin Agency. Security remains a primary operational threat. In the Southwest cocoa belt, the kidnapping and murder of Ignatius Achondo in Buea highlights the persistent risk to personnel Mimi Mefo Info. Simultaneously, the Far North region saw a Boko Haram attack on a military post in Bagaram on February 27, killing one soldier and threatening the northern logistics corridor Mimi Mefo Info. [Full analysis available for customers]

The security environment in Tbilisi has deteriorated to HIGH due to a confluence of domestic policy shifts and regional escalations. Effective tomorrow, March 1, a new government decree bans foreign nationals without permanent residency from working in the gig economy (taxi, courier, tour guide sectors) Civil.ge. This directly impacts the international student body's ability to secure part-time employment and may trigger confusion or detention for those continuing to work illegally. Simultaneously, the UK's sanctioning of pro-government channels Imedi and POSTV for 'Russian disinformation' has triggered a defiant response from the ruling party, deepening the political crisis Civil.ge. Regionally, the security architecture is straining. Reports of US/Israel military operations against Iran Netgazeti pose risks to regional transit and flight corridors. Closer to home, the Tskhinvali occupation regime has unveiled new combat drones capable of striking Georgian-controlled territory Civil.ge, and Abkhazia has intermittently closed the Psou border citing drone threats Netgazeti. Additionally, the arrest of two foreigners in Kutaisi for attempting to purchase Uranium and Cesium-137 highlights a persistent transnational smuggling threat Civil.ge. [Full analysis available for customers]