Connected Crises Intelligence Report 2026

Security conditions within the immediate 150km corridor of the Reko Diq mine site remain highly volatile. In Chagai District, the Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC) announced a $25 million investment in the Reko Diq project Profit by Pakistan Today. In Noshki (~130km from the mine), Pakistani military forces demolished structures near the ISI headquarters and ordered further evacuations amid ongoing clearance operations Estern Balochistan. The primary N-25 supply route faces severe interdiction risks and is currently assessed as NO_GO. An IED attack destroyed a police armored vehicle in Surab (~280km from the mine), killing the driver Estern Balochistan. In Khuzdar (~350km), armed men kidnapped 14 workers of a construction company, highlighting extreme risks to contractors X Intelligence. Further south, BLF insurgents claimed attacks on military outposts in Pasni, Kharan, and Dasht Estern Balochistan. The Chaman border crossing (~200km) is completely closed due to cross-border warfare, and a gas cylinder explosion in a Chaman home killed 7 children and injured 22 others Dawn. Regionally, Pakistan has launched "Operation Ghazab lil-Haq," conducting extensive airstrikes against Taliban targets in Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia (>600km) Dawn. [Full analysis available for customers]

WEEK IN REVIEW: The Cameroon cocoa sector is navigating a historic market dislocation characterized by a severe price inversion. As of February 27, official ONCC data confirms Cocoa FOB prices (1,527 FCFA/kg) are trading significantly below Robusta coffee (1,946 FCFA/kg), a trend that has solidified over the past week ONCC. This collapse has depressed exporter buying prices to 1,200–1,300 FCFA/kg, creating acute liquidity shortages for farmers during the late Main Crop. Local sentiment on social media indicates farmgate prices may have crashed as low as 750-800 FCFA/kg in some remote areas X Intelligence. Despite this gloom, the sector achieved a reputational victory with a Gold Medal at the Cacao of Excellence Awards in Amsterdam on February 20, awarded to a cooperative from Kyé-Ossi Business in Cameroon. TREND ANALYSIS: Logistically, the critical bottleneck at the Port of Douala is easing. After weeks of paralysis due to a scanning dispute, GECAM announced a gradual return to normal as SGS resumed scanning operations, though backlogs remain Facebook Group – Cocoa Cameroon 04. In a strategic infrastructure milestone, the Kribi Port Industrial Zone (KPIZ) was officially launched on February 26, a €795 million project aimed at boosting local processing Ecofin Agency. Security threats have escalated on two fronts. In the Far North, a Boko Haram attack on a military post in Bargaram killed five militants and one soldier, signaling a renewed threat to the northern logistics corridor Cameroon Intelligence Report. In the Northwest, Fulani militias burned 205 homes in Mbat village, displacing 850 people Pan African Visions. FORWARD OUTLOOK: The expected Black Pod disease spread in the South and Southwest regions has materialized, driven by persistent humidity exceeding 89-94%. If these conditions persist into early March, expect severe quality downgrades and yield losses. The expected resolution of the Douala Port scanning dispute is underway, but buyers must monitor container backlog clearance over the next 5-7 days. [Full analysis available for customers]