Georgia Intel: Tbilisi Protests & Russian Pressure

On May 7, a Tbilisi court sentenced 10 opposition figures to seven years in prison for the October 2025 protests, prompting Transparency International to declare them political prisoners. Concurrently, authorities arrested five security officers for violently dispersing protesters during the 2024 demonstrations. As expected in the prior report, these sentences triggered spontaneous protests, culminating in a large pro-European march on May 9. Diplomatic relations deteriorated further on May 9 when EU Ambassador Pawel Herczynski stated Georgia had halted its EU integration, prompting PM Kobakhidze to accuse him of ruining bilateral ties. Meanwhile, the State Security Service arrested a former Cartu Group official for allegedly spying for a European nation. The watched Holy Synod session to elect a new Patriarch is occurring today, May 11, adding another layer of societal tension. The intersection of deep political polarization, aggressive immigration enforcement, and economic strain creates a volatile operating environment for the Samgori school. With the National Bank holding the refinancing rate at 8.25% amid 5.9% inflation, and recent raids resulting in the deportation of 45 foreigners, international staff and students face heightened administrative scrutiny. Furthermore, heavy recent rainfall (35.7mm) in Tbilisi elevates the risk of localized flooding, compounding logistical challenges.

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