Iran Supreme Leader Succession Intelligence 2026

Taftan border (~49km from Reko Diq) is experiencing a massive influx of returning Pakistanis fleeing the escalating US-Iran war, straining local resources and border security (Dawn). In Chagai (~49km from the mine), authorities eradicated a 200-acre opium plantation, highlighting illicit agricultural activity near the mine site (Source: dailyindependent.com.pk -- original via Google News). Meanwhile, Pakistan is actively inviting Swedish mining firms to explore investments beyond Reko Diq to boost the sector at the upcoming Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum (X Intelligence). Primary supply routes are severely compromised by insurgent activity and economic fallout. BLA insurgents have established illegal checkpoints on the CPEC route in Khuzdar (~427km from Reko Diq), killing three alleged intelligence agents (X Intelligence), while a suicide bomber struck a police convoy in the Bolan Pass (~474km from Reko Diq), killing nine officers (X Intelligence). Consequently, the N-25 and M-8 highways are rated NO_GO, further exacerbated by a nationwide fuel crisis causing extreme congestion. The Chaman border crossing (~436km from Reko Diq) remains NO_GO amid intense cross-border military clashes with Afghan forces. Nationally, the geopolitical fallout from the US-Israel-Iran war has triggered a severe economic shock, prompting the government to hike fuel prices by PKR 55 per liter, close schools, and implement a four-day work week to conserve energy (Dawn). [Full analysis available for customers]

Georgia's security environment has deteriorated significantly following the passage of new laws restricting foreign funding and political activity on March 4-5 Civil.ge. In direct response, the European Union suspended visa-free travel for Georgian diplomatic passport holders, marking a severe escalation in the diplomatic rift between Tbilisi and Brussels Civil.ge. Domestically, polarization is peaking as nine opposition parties formed a unified alliance, prompting the ruling Georgian Dream party to threaten further constitutional bans against opposition forces Civil.ge. Regionally, the escalating conflict involving Iran is creating immediate spillover risks for the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan reported an Iranian drone attack on the Nakhchivan airport, while de facto authorities in occupied Abkhazia detected an unprecedented 30 drones in their airspace OC Media. Concurrently, Georgia's State Security Service (SSSG) launched a probe into alleged Iranian recruitment and terrorist activities within Georgia, summoning political analysts for questioning Civil.ge. [Full analysis available for customers]

The US-Israel war against Iran enters Day 11. On March 10, global oil prices exceeded $103 per barrel for Azerbaijani crude Report.az. Fitch Ratings stated the conflict could boost Azerbaijan's energy revenues APA. Expected overcrowding at the Astara border occurred. Evacuations rose to 2,097 foreign nationals by March 10 Report.az. Freight movement across the Iran border resumed on March 9 Trend. Expected constitutional changes materialized. On March 10, President Aliyev approved amendments to the Nakhchivan Constitution Report.az. The changes remove references to the Moscow and Kars agreements APA. Expected further IRGC proxy attacks did not materialize after the March 7 disruption. [Full analysis available for customers]

On March 6, Ambazonia fighters killed three soldiers in an ambush in Afua, North West region per CMRNewsAgency, sustaining critical security risks in the core cocoa belt. Concurrently, global cocoa markets face severe volatility; on March 4, Ivory Coast officially slashed its mid-crop farmgate price by 57% to 1,200 FCFA/kg per African Agribusiness News. In Cameroon, robusta coffee has surpassed cocoa prices for the first time, with ONCC reporting cocoa FOB at 1,682 FCFA/kg versus robusta at 2,061 FCFA/kg per Investir au Cameroun. Logistical corridors are under acute financial pressure. On March 6, the CDEC threatened financial seizures against major banks involved in the Bamenda-Babajou road project, risking a halt to critical infrastructure work per Investir au Cameroun. Meanwhile, port infrastructure is seeing investment, with Gulfcam announcing plans on March 10 to acquire six vessels to capture 50% of the land freight between Douala and Kribi per Investir au Cameroun. [Full analysis available for customers]