Executive Summary
Post-New Year Georgia is grappling with a trifecta of disruptions: severe weather paralyzing Western regions, a high-profile contract killing in the elite Vake district, and logistical chokepoints at key borders. While the 'Permanent Protest' on Rustaveli Avenue marks its 400th day [Source], the immediate operational risks for NGOs and expats are currently environmental and criminal rather than political violence. Heavy snowfall has triggered avalanches in Svaneti and power outages across Imereti and Samegrelo [Source]. Simultaneously, the Upper Lars checkpoint (Russia) is closed due to snow, and Sarpi (Turkey) faces severe congestion. A brazen assassination in Vake on Dec 31 [Source], coupled with charges against former Prosecutor General Partskhaladze for a separate organized hit [Source], suggests a potential flare-up in organized crime linked to political elites. Additionally, mandatory health insurance for tourists is now in force as of Jan 1, 2026 [Source].
Fresh Alerts (New)
Severe Weather & Infrastructure Collapse
2026-01-02
Location: Western Georgia (Imereti, Samegrelo, Svaneti)
Heavy snowfall and ice have damaged transmission lines, leaving thousands without power in Western Georgia. An avalanche near the Idliani tunnel has blocked the road to Mestia (Svaneti). Temperatures are forecast to drop drastically Jan 3-4 (down to -17°C in Shida Kartli).
Advice: Defer travel to Svaneti and mountainous Adjara. Stockpile non-perishable food and water if residing in Kutaisi or Zugdidi due to grid instability. Monitor Energo-Pro updates.
[Source]
[Source]
Targeted Assassination in Vake
2026-01-01
Location: Tbilisi / Vake District (near Police Station/Tennis Courts)
A businessman was shot multiple times in a black SUV on Avaliashvili Ave, near the Vake-Saburtalo police station. This brazen hit in a high-security district suggests professional execution and potential organized crime turf wars.
Advice: Exercise situational awareness in Vake. While this was a targeted hit, such incidents can lead to reprisal violence. Avoid the Avaliashvili Ave area while forensics work continues.
[Source]
Logistics: Upper Lars Border Closure
2026-01-02
Location: Kazbegi / Upper Lars Checkpoint
The Upper Lars checkpoint (Georgia-Russia border) is closed to heavy trucks and facing severe restrictions for light vehicles due to heavy snow and avalanche risk. Hundreds of vehicles are stranded.
Advice: Do not attempt travel to Russia via Kazbegi. Expect supply chain delays for goods imported via Russia. Use air travel or the Azerbaijan route (if applicable) for regional transit.
[Source]
[Source]
Protest Continuity: 400th Day
2026-01-02
Location: Tbilisi / Rustaveli Ave (Parliament)
Protesters marked the 400th day of continuous rallies on Jan 1/2. While numbers are lower than peak mass rallies, the core group remains active. New laws restricting sidewalk usage are being used to detain activists.
Advice: Avoid Rustaveli Avenue near Parliament after 19:00 if you wish to avoid potential police checks or localized scuffles. The area remains the focal point for political tension.
[Source]
[Source]
Threat Analysis
Border Security
Upper Lars (Kazbegi) is currently a choke point due to severe winter weather; expect closures to persist through Jan 4. Sarpi (Turkey) is experiencing extreme congestion due to holiday cross-border traffic [Source]. New regulations require all tourists entering Georgia to hold health insurance as of Jan 1, 2026; enforcement at land borders may cause further delays [Source].
National Social Sentiment
Political polarization remains acute. The charging of former Prosecutor General Partskhaladze (US-sanctioned, Russia-based) for a contract killing [Source] reinforces opposition narratives about the 'criminal-political nexus' and Russian influence. The EU's activation of the visa-suspension mechanism assessment [Source] adds to the anti-Western vs. pro-European friction.
Consolidated Timeline (Last 30 Days)
2025-12-04 - US calls for investigation into chemical weapons use at Tbilisi protests - [Source]
2025-12-05 - Tbilisi Airport serves 5-millionth passenger - [Source]
2025-12-08 - Ex-Interior official confirms toxic substance used on protesters - [Source]
2025-12-12 - ECHR rules Georgia overused force in 2019 crackdown - [Source]
2025-12-16 - Thousands of trucks stuck at Russia-Georgia border - [Source]
2025-12-26 - Mandatory health insurance decree signed for tourists (effective Jan 1, 2026) - [Source]
2025-12-29 - Former Prosecutor General Partskhaladze charged with ordering contract killing - [Source]
2025-12-30 - New Rikoti highway section (Batumi-Tbilisi) opens - [Source]
2025-12-31 - Targeted assassination in Vake, Tbilisi - [Source]
2025-12-31 - Activist Tamar Mearakishvili released from Tskhinvali - [Source]
2026-01-01 - 400th day of continuous protests on Rustaveli Ave - [Source]
2026-01-02 - Upper Lars border closed due to snow/avalanche risk - [Source]
Weather & Logistics Forecast
A sharp cold front is impacting Georgia Jan 3-4. Night temperatures in Shida Kartli may drop to -17°C, and -8°C in Colchis lowlands, posing risks to agriculture [Source]. Heavy snow in Svaneti has blocked the Mestia road. Expect icy conditions on the Rikoti pass and Gombori pass.
Operational Watch
[Source]
New EU mechanism entered into force; Georgia is a potential target due to democratic backsliding. Could affect diplomatic passports first.
Active
[Source]
[Source]
Ban on intercity marshrutkas (>150km) without specific bus categories effective Jan 1. Mandatory health insurance for all tourists entering Georgia.
Active
[Source]
Power: Critical failures in Western Georgia (Imereti, Samegrelo) due to snow/ice. Energo-Pro crews deployed but repairs hampered by weather.
Comms: Standard operation, though localized power cuts in West Georgia may affect cell towers.