Cameroon Far North Boko Haram Assessment 2026

The Cameroon cocoa sector faces a historic market distortion as official ONCC data confirms cocoa is now trading at a discount to Robusta coffee. As of February 24, Cocoa FOB prices dropped to 1,592 FCFA/kg, significantly below Robusta at 1,907 FCFA/kg, driving exporter buying prices down to 1,200–1,300 FCFA/kg. This price collapse coincides with a logistical paralysis at the Port of Douala, where the dispute between GECAM and the Port Authority over scanning operations continues despite a Prime Ministerial order to reinstate SGS, leaving exports blocked and warehouses congested. Security conditions in the core cocoa belt remain volatile. The kidnapping and murder of Ignatius Achondo in Buea highlights the elevated risk to procurement personnel in the Southwest region. In the Far North, a Boko Haram attack on a military post in Bagaram killed a soldier, threatening the northern logistics corridor essential for fuel and input supplies. Concurrently, high humidity levels (>90%) in the South and Centre regions have triggered a critical Black Pod disease alert, necessitating immediate fungicide application to protect the late main crop. CROSS-DOMAIN SYNTHESIS: The sector is trapped in a liquidity and logistics squeeze. The inability to ship beans, while the price crash to ~1,200 FCFA/kg has widened the arbitrage gap with neighboring Nigeria and Ghana (where prices remain effectively higher) to nearly 1,000 FCFA/kg. This creates an extreme incentive for cross-border smuggling. Unless the port dispute is resolved immediately to flush out stocks, the combination of storage saturation, disease risk from high humidity, and smuggling leakage could severely compromise the remainder of the 2025/26 season.

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