Georgia Intel: Tbilisi Protests & Russian Pressure

On May 7, a Tbilisi court sentenced 10 opposition figures, including opera singer Paata Burchuladze, to seven years in prison for the October 2025 protests. This has fueled ongoing daily protests on Rustaveli Avenue, where police continue to arrest demonstrators, including a student detained on May 6 simply for standing on a sidewalk. Conversely, on May 7, authorities arrested five security officers for violently dispersing protesters during the 2024 demonstrations. The security environment remains complex. As anticipated in the prior forward watch, Metropolitan Shio Mujiri was elected and enthroned as the new Patriarch of the Georgian Orthodox Church on May 11-12. Regionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin and South Ossetian leader Alan Gagloev signed a new alliance agreement in Moscow on May 9, deepening de facto annexation concerns. Meanwhile, the State Security Service arrested a former Cartu Group official for alleged espionage on May 5. The intersection of deep political polarization, aggressive protest policing, and severe weather creates a volatile operating environment for the Samgori school. Heavy rainfall on May 12 caused localized flooding and power outages near the Parliament and Sololaki districts. Combined with the recent violent robbery of foreigners in neighboring Varketili and an 8.25% refinancing rate straining the local economy, international staff and students face compounded physical, administrative, and logistical risks.

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