Strait of Hormuz Reopens Under US-Iran MoU; Brent Crude Falls to $76

Status: RESTRICTED

Shipping Assessment: Commercial transits have resumed but remain well below the pre-war average of 130 daily crossings. Maritime tracking firm Kpler recorded 39 crossings on June 22, 2026. The United Nations International Maritime Organization launched a phased evacuation on June 23, 2026, to rescue 11,000 stranded crew members. Shipowners face conflicting navigation instructions. The United States advises vessels to use the Omani coast, while Iran demands ships hug the Iranian coastline.

Naval Activity: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy claims it is restricting the number of daily transits based on changing conditions. Iran and Oman announced a joint working group on June 23, 2026, to manage the waterway and implement maritime service fees. United States Central Command maintains two aircraft carriers in the region and continues to provide close air support for commercial vessels using the Omani transit corridor.

Insurance Premiums: War risk premiums remain elevated at approximately 7.5 percent of hull value for international tankers. Insurance brokers in London report that underwriters require 30 to 45 days of incident-free transit and extensive mine-clearing operations before normalizing rates. The high cost of coverage continues to deter major shipping lines from immediately returning to the Persian Gulf.

Price Movement: Brent crude futures for August delivery fell to $76.71 per barrel on June 24, 2026. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dropped to $72.85 per barrel. The price decline reflects the 60-day United States sanctions waiver on Iranian oil and the resumption of limited Hormuz traffic. Spot prices remain volatile due to conflicting statements regarding the durability of the United States-Iran agreement.

Opec Response: OPEC producers in the Persian Gulf are moving to restore exports delayed by the blockade. The United Arab Emirates has recovered to 85 percent of its pre-war output levels. Iraq increased production from its southern oilfields to 2.1 million barrels per day to meet loading demand at Gulf export terminals.

Supply Disruption Assessment: The global market accumulated a deficit of approximately 1.2 billion barrels during the 106-day conflict. Rystad Energy estimates that 10,000 out of 36,000 regional oil wells require technical maintenance before resuming full production. Analysts project that restoring 80 percent of Gulf oil and gas production will take until December 2026.

Btc Pipeline: The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline remains operational. April 2026 data showed an 8 percent drop in export volumes. The infrastructure provides a major alternative export route for Caspian crude bypassing the Persian Gulf.

Other Pipelines: In Azerbaijan, an anchor damaged the underwater Azneft pipeline in the Caspian Sea, causing a localized oil spill near Dubendi beach on June 18, 2026. In Pakistan, the government approved the strategic White Oil Pipeline project to enhance domestic fuel distribution.

Pakistan: The Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) initiated gas production at the Sahito-1 well in Khairpur, Sindh, yielding 6.0 million standard cubic feet per day on June 23, 2026. Mari Energies also commenced supplying 30 million cubic feet per day from the Shams-1 discovery in Daharki. These domestic production increases provide a buffer against volatile imported liquefied natural gas prices.

Azerbaijan: The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) extinguished a major fire at its Nizami district oil refinery on June 18, 2026. The facility is recovering operational capacity. The drop in global oil prices below $80 per barrel poses a revenue risk for the national budget, requiring close monitoring of the Manat currency peg.

Georgia: Georgia serves as the primary transit corridor for Azerbaijani energy exports via the BTC and South Caucasus pipelines. Stable operations along this route are highly valuable for European markets seeking alternatives to Middle Eastern energy supplies. No direct security incidents were reported in Georgian territory during this period.

• Maintain war risk insurance coverage for all Persian Gulf transits; underwriters require 30 to 45 days of incident-free passage before normalizing rates.
• Instruct vessel captains to utilize the Omani coastal route and coordinate with the United States-led maritime coalition to avoid Iranian naval harassment and unexploded mines.
• Suspend all non-essential road transport along the N-25 and M-8 highways in Balochistan, Pakistan, due to the active insurgent campaign targeting commercial logistics.
• Audit supply chains for exposure to Iranian-origin petroleum; General License X authorizes Iranian oil transactions but strictly excludes Russian or North Korean origin products.

• Implementation of Strait of Hormuz Transit Fees:
• Collapse of US-Iran Nuclear Inspection Agreement:
• Escalation of BLA Attacks on Pakistan Supply Routes:

This assessment synthesizes reporting from Reuters, Dawn, IRNA, RIA Novosti, shipping monitors, and 40+ and additional sources across multiple languages. Items are verified through cross-referencing across language boundaries.