Strait of Hormuz Crisis: IRGC Seizes Tankers, Brent Crude Reaches $87

Status: RESTRICTED

Shipping Assessment: The IRGC halted three oil tankers on July 28, 2026, for navigating outside Tehran's designated lanes . Iran refuses to recognize the southern transit route and demands full control over inbound shipping . Vessels face high risks of interception if they do not comply with Iranian routing demands.

Naval Activity: Iranian naval forces actively patrol the strait and enforce their self-declared transit corridors. The IRGC claims to have launched ballistic missiles at a US airbase in Jordan on July 28, 2026 (Iranian state media, reflects regime position) . US Central Command reported intercepting multiple ballistic missiles .

Insurance Premiums: War risk premiums remain at peak levels due to the physical interdiction of vessels. Insurers warn that paying transit fees to Iran could violate US sanctions. This compliance risk could void coverage for vessels that yield to Iranian demands .

Price Movement: Brent crude futures rose 3 percent to $86.80 per barrel on July 28, 2026, recovering from an earlier drop below $84 . West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reached $81.95 per barrel. The price surge directly correlates with the IRGC tanker seizures and attacks on Saudi infrastructure.

Opec Response: Seven OPEC+ countries are considering removing production limits in September 2026 . This policy change would add 188,000 barrels per day to the market. The production increase aims to offset supply constraints caused by Middle East shipping disruptions.

Supply Disruption Assessment: Saudi Aramco suspended operations at its 400,000 barrel-per-day Jazan refinery after a Houthi attack . Oil loadings at the Saudi port of Yanbu have decreased by 40 percent since July 19, 2026 . Commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb strait have dropped by 56 percent .

Btc Pipeline: The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) maintains operational control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. Operations continue under restricted safety protocols due to severe Khazri winds in the Absheron Peninsula . No physical attacks on the pipeline have occurred.

Other Pipelines: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) resumed loading Tengiz crude oil onto tankers at the Novorossiysk terminal on July 27, 2026 . In Nigeria, Shell faces a $10.9 billion decommissioning liability for aging pipeline infrastructure in the Niger Delta .

Pakistan: The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority increased petrol prices by Rs1.63 to Rs335.81 per liter and diesel by Rs1.55 to Rs388.38 per liter on July 28, 2026 . Gwadar Port advanced its maritime service capabilities after Vitol delivered Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) to an LNG carrier .

Azerbaijan: Diplomatic friction with Iran persists following reciprocal media bans . High oil prices bolster state revenues, but Caspian shipping faces risks from regional military actions. A magnitude 3.2 earthquake struck the Caspian Sea on July 26, 2026, with no damage to offshore infrastructure .

Georgia: Fuel prices increased by 15 tetri per liter across all gasoline types over the past week due to global oil market volatility . The National Bank of Georgia confirmed that domestic banks will continue servicing Telasi, an electricity distributor owned by the sanctioned Russian entity Inter RAO .

• Reroute critical energy shipments around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid interdiction risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
• Audit marine insurance policies to ensure coverage remains valid if vessels are forced to navigate through Iranian-claimed transit corridors.
• Prepare for sustained high fuel costs by hedging bunker fuel purchases for the next two quarters.
• Monitor the operational status of the Jazan refinery and Yanbu port for potential supply chain bottlenecks.

• Implementation of Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz:
• Escalation of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure:

This assessment synthesizes reporting from Reuters, Dawn, IRNA, RIA Novosti, shipping monitors, and 40+ and additional sources across multiple languages. Items are verified through cross-referencing across language boundaries.