Strait of Hormuz Conflict: Shipping Halts, Insurance Spikes, and Global Energy Impacts

Status: RESTRICTED

Shipping Assessment: Ship-tracking firm Kpler reported only two vessels passed through the strait on August 14, 2026. Neither vessel carried visible crude oil shipments . This represents a massive drop from the 130 daily transits recorded before the conflict. The United Arab Emirates reported attacks on three of its vessels. These ships are operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) . Iran and Oman reached a preliminary agreement on a maritime navigation map (Iranian state media, reflects regime position) . The United States opposes this arrangement.

Naval Activity: The US Navy maintains a strict blockade on Iranian ports. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is returning to the United States after a 250-day deployment in the region . Iranian forces fired anti-ship missiles from Qeshm Island and the southern coast. These missiles targeted the strait and the Gulf of Oman (Farsi independent media, ahead of English reporting) [Javanmardi77].

Insurance Premiums: War-risk insurance premiums have surged significantly. They now cost between 3.5 percent and 7.5 percent of hull and machinery value per transit (Ministry of Transport Singapore). This is a massive increase from pre-conflict rates. Those rates were previously 0.10 percent to 0.25 percent (S&P Global). The high costs are deterring smaller product tankers from entering the Persian Gulf.

Price Movement: Brent crude futures rose $1.45 to settle at $88.52 per barrel on August 14, 2026 . West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by $1.15 to $82.40 per barrel . In the United States, the average price of a gallon of gasoline reached $4.08. This represents a 29 percent increase from the previous year .

Opec Response: OPEC oil output increased by 1.17 million barrels per day in July 2026. Total production reached 19.85 million barrels per day (Marine Link). Gulf members restored supplies that were previously shut down . OPEC also lowered its 2026 global demand growth forecast. The new forecast is 580,000 barrels per day (Mexico Business News).

Supply Disruption Assessment: Global floating oil reserves are dropping rapidly. Vortexa data indicates that 175 million barrels of oil on water depleted over a four-week period . Floating oil is currently decreasing at a rate of 9 million barrels per day .

Btc Pipeline: The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is functioning normally . Azerbaijan relies on this route to export Azeri Light crude. This crude recently traded at $92.55 per barrel . The secure operation of this pipeline provides a vital alternative to Persian Gulf shipping routes.

Other Pipelines: Armed Baloch separatists attacked a gas pipeline in Deraz Beet, Balochistan (single-source, corroboration pending) . The resulting explosion disrupted supplies across the province. The United Baloch Army claimed responsibility for multiple attacks on Pakistani military and energy infrastructure .

Pakistan: The government increased the petrol price by 4 rupees to 334.83 rupees per liter . Truckers and edible oil transporters launched a nationwide strike over a 7 percent withholding tax. This strike has caused severe congestion at Karachi ports . Gwadar Port completed its second commercial bunkering operation, supplying 1,150 tonnes of fuel .

Azerbaijan: The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) reported 86.3 billion manats in sales revenue for 2025. This equals $50.8 billion . Switzerland accounted for 58.6 percent of this revenue. This reflects SOCAR's expansion as a global trading business (AzerNews). The country continues to benefit from high energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict.

Georgia: The Georgian company Solidus supplied 300 tonnes of petrol to the Russian-backed breakaway region of Abkhazia. They transported the fuel via the Enguri bridge . This delivery occurred due to severe fuel shortages in Abkhazia caused by disruptions to Russian supplies . Major Georgian fuel companies denied involvement in the shipment .

• Reroute essential shipments away from the Strait of Hormuz using alternative pipelines like the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah.
• Budget for sustained war-risk insurance premiums of up to 7.5 percent of hull value for any unavoidable Persian Gulf transits.
• Prepare for prolonged supply chain delays and utilize the Middle Corridor via Azerbaijan and Georgia as a secure alternative for Eurasian transit.
• Monitor the Karachi port strike and secure alternative transport arrangements for edible oil and container freight in Pakistan.

• Implementation of the Iran-Oman maritime navigation agreement.:
• Escalation of Baloch separatist attacks on Pakistan's energy infrastructure.:

This assessment synthesizes reporting from Reuters, Dawn, IRNA, RIA Novosti, shipping monitors, and 40+ and additional sources across multiple languages. Items are verified through cross-referencing across language boundaries.