Iran is currently operating under a military regime disguised as a clerical state (The Economist).
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026.
The Assembly of Experts then named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the third Supreme Leader (Tasnim News Agency).
However, Mojtaba has not made a single public appearance, video address, or audio broadcast since his appointment (Iran International).
State media only releases written statements or has television anchors read his messages (The Times of Israel).
This unprecedented absence strongly suggests he sustained severe injuries during the initial airstrikes (The Jerusalem Post).
In his absence, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has seized total control of the Iranian government (The Economist).
The IRGC forced the succession vote and has sidelined civilian leaders like President Masoud Pezeshkian (Reuters).
IRGC commanders now direct the Supreme National Security Council and manage the ongoing war with Israel (Gulf International Forum).
For international businesses, this means Iran's government is highly unpredictable.
The IRGC prioritizes military survival over economic stability, increasing the risk of prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The true leader of Iran remains unknown because newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has vanished from public view (Iran International). He has not produced a single audio or video message in the 27 days since his father's death (The Times of Israel). Intelligence indicates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is using his silence to operate a shadow military government (The Jerusalem Post). This total lack of visible leadership creates extreme unpredictability for regional security and global energy markets (The Economist).
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now dictates all state policy (The Economist). Civilian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, hold no real authority over the war or internal security (Iran International). The IRGC recently installed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (Gulf International Forum). This move bypasses normal legal procedures and places a hardline military veteran in charge of strategic targeting (Iran International). Additionally, Ahmad Vahidi assumed the role of IRGC commander-in-chief without a public decree from the Supreme Leader (Iran International). The military apparatus controls the advanced missile forces and directs the ongoing conflict independently of the clerical establishment (The Economist).
The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8 under extreme duress (Reuters). The 88-member clerical body held virtual meetings after Israeli strikes hit their building in Qom (The New York Times). IRGC officials directly threatened dissenting clerics who opposed hereditary rule (Reuters). Ultimately, Mojtaba received only 59 votes, revealing significant internal resistance to his appointment (The New York Times). Opponents argued that elevating the son of the former leader turns the Islamic Republic into a monarchy (Iran International). The regime rushed the announcement to project stability, but the fractured vote exposes deep divisions among Iran's religious elites (Reuters).
This assessment draws from 1 items across 100+ languages items across 100+ languages. Full source list with trust tiers, language coverage, and direct links available to subscribers.
View subscription options →Your Operations Deserve Better Than Yesterday's News
Tell us where you operate. We'll send a sample brief within 24 hours. Free, from Sean, the founder. No sales pressure.
Request Sample Brief See Plans & PricingThis assessment synthesizes reporting from RIA Novosti, IRNA, Tasnim News, BBC Persian, and 40+ and additional sources across multiple languages. Items are verified through cross-referencing across language boundaries.
Multi-language sourcing from 250+ feeds across 5 countries. Updated daily.
See Pricing Contact Us