Iran faces a severe leadership vacuum following the February 28 assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Assembly of Experts named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader on March 8.
However, Mojtaba has not appeared publicly in over 45 days.
US and Israeli intelligence suggest he suffered severe, disfiguring injuries in the airstrike and remains incapacitated in Qom.
This absence leaves a critical question: who is actually governing Iran? Evidence points to a complete military takeover by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Senior commanders, including Major General Ahmad Vahidi, now dictate Iran's diplomatic and military actions.
The civilian government has lost its authority.
Meanwhile, the collapse of US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad triggered a US naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13.
This blockade has driven global oil prices above $125 per barrel.
Businesses must prepare for prolonged regional instability, as the IRGC operates without the traditional mediation of a visible Supreme Leader.
Prepare your regional portfolios for immediate and unpredictable policy shifts. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized total control over state decisions. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains incapacitated in Qom and absent from public view. This massive power vacuum destroys any chance of stable diplomatic negotiations. Freeze all long-term regional investments and prepare for uncoordinated military escalation.
Major General Ahmad Vahidi now drives Iran's military and diplomatic strategies. The civilian government and formal negotiators lack actual authority. Vahidi sets strict red lines that constrain diplomats like Abbas Araghchi at the Islamabad talks (Institute for the Study of War). A secretive military intelligence network called the Habib Circle also wields immense influence. This group consists of Mojtaba's loyalists from his time in the Basij militia (WBUR). Without a visible leader to mediate disputes, the regime suffers from deep internal rivalries. The Supreme National Security Council and the foreign ministry frequently issue conflicting signals.
The Assembly of Experts rushed a virtual vote on March 8 to elevate the former leader's son (The Washington Post). At least eight clerics boycotted this emergency session. They protested heavy military pressure and warned against establishing a hereditary dictatorship (Iran International). The new leader lacks the constitutional requirement of being a Grand Ayatollah. Domestic outlets still refer to him as a Hojjat ol-Islam, a mid-level clerical rank (Middle East Forum). This religious deficit deepens the regime's legitimacy crisis among traditional Shiite scholars.
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Request Sample Brief See Plans & PricingThis assessment synthesizes reporting from RIA Novosti, IRNA, Tasnim News, BBC Persian, and 40+ and additional sources across multiple languages. Items are verified through cross-referencing across language boundaries.
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