Iran's designated Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains missing from public view following the February 28 assassination of his father.
This unprecedented absence has created a severe power vacuum in Tehran.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has seized de facto control of the civilian government.
President Masoud Pezeshkian faces total deadlock as military commanders block his cabinet appointments.
While the United States and Iran reached a tentative 60-day ceasefire on May 29, internal Iranian stability remains highly volatile.
Businesses must operate under the assumption that the IRGC, not the civilian presidency or the missing Supreme Leader, now dictates Iran's strategic and economic decisions.
Region Alert assesses the Region Alert Threat Index as of 2026-06-01T12:05:00Z. Your Iranian policy assumptions are now obsolete. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vanished from public view and only uses physical couriers. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized control of state functions during this leadership vacuum. This military takeover threatens civilian government survival and eliminates near-term sanctions relief. Reassess your country risk exposure immediately before new hardline policies take effect.
The IRGC now dictates terms to the civilian presidency. Commander Ahmad Vahidi recently blocked President Masoud Pezeshkian from appointing a new intelligence minister (Iran International). Military leaders insist they must manage all sensitive positions during the current wartime conditions. Pezeshkian reportedly offered his resignation over this total military takeover, though state media quickly denied the claim (Iran International). The IRGC has also established a strict security perimeter around the missing Supreme Leader's inner circle. This effectively cuts off the president from the ultimate decision-making authority.
The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei as the third Supreme Leader on March 8 (Axios). However, severe injuries from the February 28 strikes have reportedly forced him into extreme isolation . He allegedly suffered facial burns and requires a leg prosthetic (The New York Times). The regime now relies on written statements issued in his name to project continuity (The Times of Israel). Hardline clerics and military officials are using this physical seclusion to normalize rule by proxy (Modern Diplomacy).
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Request Sample Brief See Plans & PricingThis assessment synthesizes reporting from RIA Novosti, IRNA, Tasnim News, BBC Persian, and 40+ and additional sources across multiple languages. Items are verified through cross-referencing across language boundaries.
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