The Iranian regime faces a severe leadership vacuum. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died in a February 28 airstrike .
The Assembly of Experts named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader in March.
However, Mojtaba has not made a single public appearance since his appointment.
Reports indicate he suffered severe injuries in the same strike that killed his father.
This unprecedented absence raises serious questions about who actually governs Iran. Evidence points to a quiet military takeover.
A council of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders now appears to hold primary operational authority.
They use Mojtaba's title to legitimize their decisions.
For international businesses, this means the civilian government has lost its remaining influence.
The IRGC dictates all foreign policy, military escalation, and economic management.
Region Alert assesses the Region Alert Threat Index as of 2026-06-28T12:06:00Z. Your Iranian policy assumptions are now obsolete. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vanished from public view after a February airstrike. A shadow military council likely controls the state through written decrees. Expect sudden shifts in sanctions enforcement and regional security policies. Freeze all long-term strategic planning until clear leadership emerges.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) now dominates the Iranian state. Senior military commanders formed a council that holds primary operational authority. They bypassed the traditional civilian government entirely. The IRGC Navy directly targets commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, ignoring diplomatic agreements . Civilian officials like President Masoud Pezeshkian hold no real power over these military actions. The security apparatus uses Mojtaba's formal title to shield its decentralized control. This marks a permanent shift toward military rule in Tehran.
The Assembly of Experts rushed to name Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader on March 9. The vote revealed deep internal divisions within the regime. Only 59 of the 84 assembly members participated in the decisive ballot. Hardliners pushed the appointment through despite historical opposition to hereditary rule. Mojtaba's ongoing physical absence prevents him from consolidating genuine authority. Representatives read his written messages to crowds, but he provides no audio or video proof of life.
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Request Sample Brief See Plans & PricingThis assessment synthesizes reporting from RIA Novosti, IRNA, Tasnim News, BBC Persian, and 40+ and additional sources across multiple languages. Items are verified through cross-referencing across language boundaries.
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