A military junta led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) currently governs Iran.
This follows the February 28, 2026, killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Assembly of Experts designated his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the third Supreme Leader in March.
However, Mojtaba has not made a single public appearance in over four months. He notably missed his father's state funeral in July 2026.
Reports attribute this absence to severe injuries he suffered in the same airstrike.
The IRGC exploits this leadership vacuum to consolidate absolute control over state functions.
They effectively transformed the Islamic Republic into a military state.
The military completely sidelined the civilian government and clerical establishment.
For international businesses, the Iranian state is now entirely synonymous with the IRGC. All engagements carry extreme military and sanctions risks.
Region Alert assesses the Region Alert Threat Index as of 2026-07-14T12:05:00Z. Your regional operations face immediate escalation risks. Iran lacks a visible head of state and hardline military factions now control all policy. These commanders operate without clerical oversight and will ignore diplomatic efforts. Expect sudden shifts in sanctions enforcement as competing power centers fight for ultimate control. Update your contingency plans for sudden regulatory changes and regional conflict.
The IRGC exercises absolute control over Iran's strategic and military operations . The military apparatus operates independently of traditional civilian oversight . The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters issues direct warnings to Gulf states . It declared that any cooperation with US forces constitutes an act of war . The military completely sidelined the civilian government . IRGC intelligence agents placed former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad under house arrest . They did this after uncovering an alleged Israeli plot to install him in power . Furthermore, the IRGC Navy independently executes the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz . It targets Emirati tankers and ignores diplomatic memorandums .
The Assembly of Experts remains deeply fractured following its March 8 decision . The body named Mojtaba Khamenei as the third Supreme Leader under extreme military pressure . Nearly half of the 88-member clerical body reportedly opposed the dynastic succession . This hereditary transfer violates the foundational anti-monarchy principles of the 1979 revolution . Mojtaba's ongoing physical absence paralyzes the clerical leadership . Reports attribute his absence to severe injuries he suffered in the February 28 airstrike . Domestic resistance groups capitalize on this deadlock . They launch coordinated protests and arson attacks against state installations to challenge the regime .
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Request Sample Brief See Plans & PricingThis assessment synthesizes reporting from RIA Novosti, IRNA, Tasnim News, BBC Persian, and 40+ and additional sources across multiple languages. Items are verified through cross-referencing across language boundaries.
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