Georgia Intel: Tbilisi Protests & Russian Pressure

On May 7, a Tbilisi court sentenced 10 opposition figures to seven years in prison for the October 2025 protests. This has fueled ongoing daily protests on Rustaveli Avenue, where police continue to arrest demonstrators, including students Elene Gelashvili and Ani Pridonashvili, detained between May 6 and May 13 simply for standing on sidewalks. Conversely, on May 7, authorities arrested five security officers for violently dispersing protesters during the 2024 demonstrations. Internationally, the French National Assembly adopted a resolution on May 11 calling for sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili. Regionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin and South Ossetian leader Alan Gagloev signed a new alliance agreement in Moscow on May 9, deepening de facto annexation concerns. Domestically, the State Security Service arrested a former Cartu Group official for alleged espionage on May 5, and police detained 44 individuals in a nationwide crackdown on the criminal underworld on May 13. The intersection of deep political polarization, aggressive protest policing, and severe weather creates a volatile operating environment for the Samgori school. As anticipated in the prior forward watch, heavy rainfall on May 12 caused localized flooding and power outages near the Parliament and Sololaki districts. Combined with a new Russian mobile app requirement causing administrative friction for Georgian truck drivers at Up% refinancing rate straining the local economy, international staff and students face compounded physical, administrative, and logistical risks.

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