The Iranian government is currently operating under a de facto military junta following the February 28 assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
While the Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei as the third Supreme Leader in early March, he has not appeared publicly in over a month.
This unprecedented absence leaves the actual locus of state power highly uncertain.
Intelligence indicates a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) military council now controls the country.
This council has placed a security cordon around the unseen Supreme Leader. President Masoud Pezeshkian faces a complete political deadlock.
The IRGC routinely blocks his cabinet appointments and denies him access to Mojtaba Khamenei.
The civilian government no longer exercises executive authority.
Regional stability remains severely degraded as the IRGC directs the ongoing war with the United States and Israel without civilian oversight.
Businesses must treat the IRGC as the sole governing authority in Iran until the Supreme Leader physically emerges to claim power.
The true governing authority in Iran remains unknown because designated Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly since his father's death. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) military council has exploited this leadership vacuum to seize de facto control of the state. This military takeover effectively neutralizes the civilian presidency and severs all traditional diplomatic channels. The regime's inability to produce its new leader physically suggests severe internal instability or catastrophic health issues.
A military council led by IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi now dictates all state functions. This group enforces a strict security cordon around the Supreme Leader's compound. President Masoud Pezeshkian cannot access the compound or communicate with Mojtaba Khamenei. The IRGC actively vetoes civilian government decisions. Last week, Vahidi blocked Pezeshkian from appointing Hossein Dehghan as the new intelligence minister. The military council insists that wartime conditions require the IRGC to manage all sensitive leadership positions directly. This dynamic strips the presidency of its executive authority. The civilian government now functions merely as a facade for military rule.
The Assembly of Experts officially selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader on March 8. However, the selection process faced severe internal and external disruptions. A bomb struck the Assembly's headquarters in Qom during their initial deliberations on March 3. Within the regime, top clerics strongly opposed the dynastic transition. Ali Asghar Hejazi, a senior aide to the late Ali Khamenei, warned the Assembly that Mojtaba lacked religious qualifications. Hejazi argued that elevating the son would permanently surrender the country to the military. The IRGC is currently purging Hejazi and his allies from the leadership office to silence this opposition.
This assessment draws from 1 items across 100+ languages items across 100+ languages. Full source list with trust tiers, language coverage, and direct links available to subscribers.
View subscription options →Your Operations Deserve Better Than Yesterday's News
Tell us where you operate. We'll send a sample brief within 24 hours. Free, from Sean, the founder. No sales pressure.
Request Sample Brief See Plans & PricingThis assessment synthesizes reporting from RIA Novosti, IRNA, Tasnim News, BBC Persian, and 40+ and additional sources across multiple languages. Items are verified through cross-referencing across language boundaries.
Multi-language sourcing from 250+ feeds across 5 countries. Updated daily.
See Pricing Contact Us