Iran Conflict Sitrep

The US-Iran conflict has entered a dangerous new phase of entrenched economic warfare and looming military escalation. President Trump's rejection of Tehran's peace proposal and his directive to prepare for a prolonged naval blockade signal that Washington is abandoning immediate diplomatic off-ramps in favor of maximum pressure. The Pentagon's preparation of new short and powerful strike options indicates that the current ceasefire is highly fragile.

If the US launches new strikes to break the deadlock, it will almost certainly trigger a resumption of full-scale hostilities. Watch for US military movements in the Gulf over the next 48 hours, as CENTCOM's new strike options could be authorized at any moment.

Inside Iran, the economic toll of the 61-day blockade is accelerating. The US dollar has shattered records, crossing 1. 8 million tomans on the open market, while the ongoing internet blackout costs the economy an estimated $31 million daily.

The regime is responding to this pressure with a severe internal crackdown, executing prisoners and arresting citizens caught with Starlink terminals. However, the opening of six land transit corridors by Pakistan provides Tehran with a critical, albeit limited, logistical lifeline. This move by Islamabad directly challenges the efficacy of the US naval blockade and highlights the limits of Washington's regional influence.

Watch for US diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to close these corridors over the next 48 hours.

Global markets are reacting violently to the stalled negotiations. Brent crude surged past $123 per barrel, driven by fears that the Hormuz blockade will persist for months and that new US strikes could target Iranian oil infrastructure. The conflict's downstream impacts are widening, with Pakistan's weekly oil import bill nearly tripling to $800 million.

Decision-makers should plan for a prolonged disruption of Middle East energy flows. Watch for further spikes in global energy prices if the US officially announces the formation of its new maritime coalition over the next 48 hours.

The economic toll of the 61-day blockade is accelerating rapidly inside Iran. The US dollar shattered records this week, crossing 1.8 million tomans on the open market after a 26,000-toman jump in just 48 hours. This currency collapse is devastating civilian purchasing power. State media outlets are sounding alarms over the sinking economy, while officials tap strategic reserves to manage inflation and mounting layoffs. Industrial safety is also degrading; a contract coal mine collapsed in the Parvadeh region of Tabas, killing one worker and injuring another.

The nationwide internet blackout continues to cripple daily life and commerce. Iranian officials estimate the shutdown is costing the economy $31 million per day. Despite the blackout, citizens are attempting to bypass restrictions using smuggled Starlink terminals. The state views this as a severe security threat. In Kurdistan Province, the IRGC announced the arrest of four individuals, explicitly citing the seizure of Starlink satellite equipment alongside weapons.

Internal security forces maintain a severe crackdown on dissent. Independent human rights monitors report that at least 21 people have been executed since the war began. In Tabriz, three prisoners were executed, while in Urmia, a political prisoner on death row was transferred to solitary confinement. The judiciary has also opened cases against two human rights lawyers, Amir Raisian and Milad Panahipour, for disclosing information about detainees from the January protests.

Note: This section draws from Farsi and regional reporting by IranWire, HRANA, Radio Farda, and Iran International.