Georgia Intel: Tbilisi Protests & Russian Pressure

On May 7, a Tbilisi court sentenced 10 opposition figures, including opera singer Paata Burchuladze, to seven years in prison for the October 2025 protests. This has fueled daily protests on Rustaveli Avenue, where police continue to arrest students and activists, such as Elene Gelashvili and former minister Alexi Petriashvili, for 'obstructing pedestrian traffic' simply by standing on sidewalks. Meanwhile, on May 7, authorities arrested five security officers for violently dispersing protesters during the 2024 demonstrations, though Amnesty International criticized this on May 11 as insufficient. Internationally, the French National Assembly adopted a resolution on May 11 calling for sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili, and the European Parliament suspended access for pro-government Imedi TV on May 13. Regionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin and South Ossetian leader Alan Gagloev signed a new alliance agreement in Moscow on May 9, deepening de facto annexation concerns. Domestically, police detained 44 individuals in a nationwide crackdown on the criminal underworld on May 13. The intersection of deep political polarization, aggressive protest policing, and severe weather creates a volatile operating environment for the Samgori school. As anticipated in the prior forward watch, heavy rainfall caused localized flooding and power outages, and the National Environmental Agency has issued severe weather warnings for May 15-16. Combined with an 8.25% refinancing rate straining the local economy, international staff and students face compounded physical, administrative, and logistical risks. Avoid Rustaveli Avenue entirely.

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